{"id":16899,"date":"2026-01-17T13:19:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-17T13:19:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/srilanka.factcrescendo.com\/english\/?p=16899"},"modified":"2026-01-17T13:19:02","modified_gmt":"2026-01-17T13:19:02","slug":"did-nasa-warn-of-2-asteroid-impact-risk-on-valentines-day-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/srilanka.factcrescendo.com\/english\/did-nasa-warn-of-2-asteroid-impact-risk-on-valentines-day-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Did NASA Warn of 2% Asteroid Impact Risk on Valentine’s Day 2026?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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A claim circulating widely on social media platforms alleges that NASA has issued a warning about a 2% chance of an asteroid hitting Earth on February 14. The post has gained traction by combining a specific probability figure with the notable date of Valentine’s Day. However, an examination of available evidence indicates the claim is misleading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Social Media Posts<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Multiple social media users recently claimed that NASA identified a 2% risk of an asteroid hitting Earth on February 14.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Fact Check<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

No NASA Warning for February 14<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NASA monitors potential asteroid threats through its Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), which maintains a publicly accessible Sentry Earth Impact Monitoring<\/a> table. This database catalogs all known near-Earth objects that have any calculated chance of impacting our planet, including their potential impact dates and associated probabilities. A review of the latest data shows no asteroid with a 2% impact probability for February 14, 2026, and NASA has not released any warning that matches the viral social media claim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where the \u201c2%\u201d Figure Actually Came From<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2% probability figure circulating online comes from early analysis of asteroid 2024 YR4, but it was never linked to February. When astronomers first spotted 2024 YR4 in late 2024, their initial calculations suggested a 2\u20133% chance of Earth impact on December 22, 2032. This preliminary estimate was reported in early 2025, with scientists noting that such probabilities typically change significantly as more observations are made.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As astronomers tracked the asteroid more carefully, NASA’s Sentry monitoring system progressively lowered the Earth-impact probability, first dropping it below 1%, then eventually reducing it to nearly zero. This demonstrates that the original 2% figure was based on incomplete data and was never meant to be a final assessment.(Source<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why February 14 Keeps Appearing<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Valentine\u2019s Day angle appears to come from confusion with a different asteroid, 2023 DW. In early 2023, NASA reported that 2023 DW had a very small chance, about 1 in 560 (\u22480.18%), of impacting Earth on February 14, 2046. Even at the time, NASA and the European Space Agency stressed that these odds were expected to decline as more data became available. This case was widely reported as a \u201cValentine\u2019s Day asteroid,\u201d but it never involved a 2% probability and was tied to a date more than two decades away, not an upcoming year. (Source<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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We've been tracking a new asteroid named 2023 DW that has a very small chance of impacting Earth in 2046. Often when new objects are first discovered, it takes several weeks of data to reduce the uncertainties and adequately predict their orbits years into the future. (1\/2) pic.twitter.com\/SaLC0AUSdP<\/a><\/p>— NASA Space Alerts (@NASASpaceAlerts) March 7, 2023<\/a><\/blockquote>