දිනපතා සත්‍ය කරුණු දැන ගැනීමට අපගේ WhatsApp සමුහයටමෙතනින් එකතුවන්න.

During the recent Budget debate, Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe announced that Presidential and Parliamentary elections would take place in 2024. Following this announcement, numerous social media posts discussing the possible presidential candidates and expected outcomes have emerged.

Let’s examine the veracity of one such claim attributed to the Centre for Policy Alternatives about their predicted outcome in the upcoming election.

Social Media Posts

Social media posts circulating alongside a video claim that the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA) (විකල්ප ප්‍රතිපත්ති කේන්ද්‍රය) conducted a survey predicting the outcome of the upcoming presidential election in Sri Lanka in 2024. According to the study, there is the likelihood that the leader of NPP, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, would secure 51% of the total votes.

Facebook | Archived

Many were naturally curious about this claim. Hence, we decided to investigate these claims further.

Fact Check

Mainstream Media Check: No reports were found in mainstream media outlets regarding a survey conducted by CPA on the predicted outcome of the 2024 presidential election in Sri Lanka.

Contacting CPA: We checked the social handles of CPA and found no recent announcement related to an election survey. Hence, we emailed the Centre for Policy Alternatives, who confirmed they did not conduct any poll or survey associated with the upcoming 2024 presidential election.

The CPA further emphasized that their last survey, published on September 15th, 2023, focused on economic reforms and that they did not conduct any polls related to election outcomes.

Here is an island-wide pre-election opinion poll conducted by the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA) to identify Sri Lankan voter perceptions and attitudes on key discussion topics in the lead-up to the 2015 elections.

Analysis of Viral Video Claim: We then examined the viral video linked in the social media posts. We noticed that though the post caption mentions the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA), the background narration of the video attributes the study to an institute called the 'Institute for Health Policy'.

The Institute of Health Policy released this information through its official channels, and there were criticisms from some social media users about the methodology of the research.

Archived

They further state that the past four months have seen support for AK Dissanayake consolidating at the expense of the three other candidates tested in IHP’s SLOTS polling, as seen in their report here.

However, many had questioned how a health policy institute could conduct election surveys and had requested further details into how such a study was carried out, including the size and demographics of the sample and whether the poll is an accurate representative sample of Sri Lanka.

We also noticed that the ‘The Institute of Health Policy’ had published monthly graphs on voting intention related to the leading political parties in Sri Lanka during the past few months. Hence, to get further insights into their methodology, we have emailed the ‘The Institute of Health Policy’ and plan to update this article with their response.

Follow us and stay up to date with our latest fact checks.

Facebook | Twitter |Instagram | Google News | TikTok

Conclusion:

The claim that the Centre for Policy Alternatives conducted a survey predicting the outcome of the 2024 presidential election in Sri Lanka is false. The CPA confirmed that they did not conduct or publish any such survey, and the content of the linked video pertains to research done by an institute called the ‘Institute for Health Policy.’

Avatar

Title:The Centre For Policy Alternative Has NOT Published Any Research About the Outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election in Sri Lanka

Written By: Kalana Krishantha

Result: Misleading

ஊது பாவைUPFA