Insight Into Three Years of Taliban Rule in Afghanistan!

The Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan in August 2021 marked a new and uncertain chapter in the country's history, reshaping its political landscape and creating a new set of challenges. Following the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces, the swift collapse of the Afghan government was unexpected and has led to significant changes in governance, human rights, and international relations.

The rapid takeover by the Taliban stunned the world and triggered widespread concern about Afghanistan's future. This explainer examines the key developments and impacts of three years of Taliban rule, providing a detailed overview of the group's governance, the humanitarian crisis, security issues, and international dynamics.

The Taliban, originally formed in the early 1990s during the Afghan Civil war, initially governed Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001. Their regime was known for its strict interpretation of Islamic law and severe human rights violations and restrictions on personal freedoms, especially for women. The U.S. led invasion in 2001, following the 9/11 attacks, led to the Taliban's ousting and the establishment of a new Afghan government. However, the Taliban regrouped and waged a prolonged insurgency against the Afghan government and international forces.

By the late 2010s, the Taliban had gained substantial control over parts of Afghanistan, controlling or contesting nearly half of the country by 2019. The Doha Agreement, signed in February 2020 between the U.S. and the Taliban, set the terms for the withdrawal of foreign troops and facilitated the Taliban's return to power. As U.S. forces completed their exit in August 2021, the Taliban swiftly captured key cities, including Kabul on 15 August 2021, leading to the collapse of the Afghan government. President Ashraf Ghani fled the country, and Taliban declared the re-establishment of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

Governance Under Taliban Rule

Following their takeover, the Taliban established a governance system centred around their Supreme Leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, who is the ultimate authority within the group and is based in Kandahar. The Rahbari Shura, or Leadership Council, assists Akhundzada and oversees the administration of government affairs. Despite initial promises of inclusivity, the Taliban's cabinet, formed in September 2021, was predominantly composed of Pashtun men, with minimal representation from other ethnic groups.

The Taliban's governance has been characterized by a lack of transparency and centralized decision-making. Key decisions are often made by a small group of senior leaders, with limited input from broader societal or political stakeholders. The political structure reflects the Taliban's traditional approach, focusing on loyalty and tribal affiliations rather than administrative expertise.

Taliban has reinstated its interpretation of Sharia law, which includes harsh punishments such as public executions and floggings. The legal system is now overseen by religious scholars, or "ulema," rather than trained judges and lawyers, raising concerns about fairness and due process. For instance, there have been reports of individuals facing harsh penalties without fair trials, and women have been particularly affected by the re-imposition of strict dress codes and restrictions on their public presence. Supreme Court justices are appointed by the Taliban's supreme leader. Justices must be at least 40 years old and have professional experience as well as knowledge of Sharia and Afghan law.

In September 2022, the Taliban issued a notice banning women from attending universities, reversing earlier promises to allow female education. This move followed prior restrictions on girls' secondary education and has been widely condemned internationally. Additionally, the Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice has been reestablished, enforcing Taliban-imposed moral codes with rigorous oversight.

Human Rights and Social Issues

The status of women in Afghanistan has significantly declined under Taliban rule. Despite initial assurances, the Taliban has imposed stringent limitations on women's rights, including bans on secondary and higher education and restrictions on employment and right to work. Women have been largely excluded from public life, and their freedoms have been severely curtailed. The United Nations estimates that over 1.4 million girls have been deprived of education since the Taliban's return to power.

Women who attempt to protest or challenge these restrictions have faced arrest, harassment, and violence. For example, several women activists were detained for protesting against the bans on education and employment. The severe restrictions on women’s freedoms is often internationally criticized as Taliban’s rigid ideological stance.

Under Taliban rule, freedom of speech and press freedom have been drastically curtailed. Journalists face threats and harassment, leading many to flee or cease their work. Reporters Without Borders notes that over 300 media outlets have closed since August 2021, and more than 6,400 journalists have lost their jobs. Those who remain face censorship and must comply with Taliban-imposed regulations that restrict critical reporting. Taliban also introduced new regulations requiring media outlets to align with Islamic values and prohibiting content critical of the government. These measures further suppressed independent journalism and limited public access to information.

Ethnic and religious minorities, including Hazaras, Tajiks, and Shiite Muslims, have faced persecution under Taliban rule. The Taliban’s Sunni Pashtun-centric ideology has led to discrimination and violence against these groups. For example, in October 2022, a suicide bombing at a Hazara educational centre in Kabul resulted in over 50 deaths, most of whom were students. The Taliban's response to such attacks has been criticized as inadequate, with insufficient protection provided to minority communities.

Restrictions on religious practices not conforming to Taliban interpretations have also been reported, particularly affecting Shiite rituals and clerics. The UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in Afghanistan has raised alarms about the increasing violence and discrimination faced by these groups.

Economic and Humanitarian Crisis

The Taliban’s takeover precipitated a severe economic crisis in Afghanistan. The international community cut off most financial aid, and the U.S. froze approximately $9.5 billion in Afghan central bank reserves. Sanctions on the Taliban leadership further isolated Afghanistan from global financial systems, leading to a sharp contraction of the economy.

The World Bank mentions that Afghan economy has contracted by 26 percent. with rampant unemployment and inflation. The value of the Afghani currency plummeted, and public services deteriorated. The World Bank reported that over 90% of Afghan households were living below the poverty line by mid-2023, with many relying on remittances or humanitarian aid for survival.

Recent developments show some economic stabilization efforts by the Taliban, including negotiations with regional partners for trade agreements. However, the overall economic situation remains precarious, with widespread poverty and a struggling public sector.

The economic collapse has led to a severe humanitarian crisis. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reports that over 28 million Afghans, more than two-thirds of the population, are in need of humanitarian assistance. The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that 19.7 million people are experiencing acute hunger, with malnutrition rates, particularly among children, reaching alarming levels.

Humanitarian aid efforts have been hampered by allegations of corruption and mismanagement within the Taliban administration. Aid organizations have struggled to reach vulnerable populations, particularly in remote areas. The Taliban's ban on female humanitarian workers has further complicated relief efforts, as these workers are crucial for assisting women and children. The humanitarian situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated sharply. The UN reports that over 28 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance, with acute hunger affecting nearly 20 million. In response to the crisis, international organizations have increased aid deliveries, but access challenges and Taliban control over aid distribution have limited effectiveness. Recent reports suggest some improvements in aid distribution, but humanitarian needs continue to exceed available support.

Security Situation

The Taliban has faced challenges in maintaining internal security. Although the group has managed to suppress most organized resistance, it has struggled with the ongoing threat from ISIS-K, which continues to conduct attacks across Afghanistan. Additionally, the Taliban faces sporadic resistance from groups like the National Resistance Front (NRF) in the Panjshir Valley. The Taliban's responses to resistance have included mass arrests and alleged human rights abuses, further straining the country’s stability. The Taliban has faced challenges in maintaining internal security.

The Taliban’s return has significant regional implications. Pakistan, Iran, and China have expressed concerns about instability and militant activity spilling over their borders. Pakistan faces increased attacks from the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), while Iran deals with an influx of refugees and sectarian tensions.

China has engaged diplomatically with the Taliban, offering economic support in exchange for security guarantees. Recent developments include increased Chinese investment in Afghan infrastructure, purportedly aimed at stabilizing the region and countering extremist threats.

Iran is concerned about the impact on its Shiite population and has faced challenges from the influx of Afghan refugees. China, sharing a short border with Afghanistan, is worried about the potential for Uyghur militants from Xinjiang to use Afghanistan as a base for operations.

International Relations and Isolation

The Taliban's quest for international recognition has largely been unsuccessful. No country has formally recognized the Taliban government, although some nations, including Pakistan, China, Russia, and Qatar, have engaged with the group on various fronts. The international community has set conditions for recognition, including the formation of an inclusive government and adherence to human rights standards. The Taliban's failure to meet these conditions has kept them diplomatically isolated.

The lack of recognition has complicated the Taliban's efforts to access international financial institutions and attract foreign investment. The frozen Afghan Central Bank reserves and international sanctions have further exacerbated the country’s economic difficulties.

International sanctions, including asset freezes and travel bans, have restricted Afghanistan's access to global financial systems. The Taliban has struggled to stabilize the economy and provide public services due to these constraints. Recent efforts to negotiate the easing of some sanctions have been unsuccessful. However, humanitarian aid continues, with international organizations working to address the urgent needs of the Afghan population, despite logistical and administrative challenges.

Humanitarian aid has been provided by international organizations, but it has not been sufficient to address the widespread needs. The Taliban’s control over aid distribution has led to accusations of corruption and misallocation, with some aid being diverted to loyalists or used to enforce compliance with Taliban policies.

Future Prospects

The Taliban faces numerous challenges currently. The economic crisis, lack of international recognition, and internal dissent pose significant obstacles. The group’s rigid ideology and governance approach continue to alienate both the international community and many Afghan citizens. Future prospects include the possibility of continued economic instability and security challenges. The Taliban’s ability to govern effectively and address the country’s needs will be crucial in determining Afghanistan’s trajectory.

The potential for civil unrest, insurgency, and further humanitarian deterioration remains high if the Taliban persists with its current policies. The group's narrow support base and exclusion of diverse ethnic and political groups limit its ability to effectively govern a complex and multi-ethnic country.

Several scenarios could shape Afghanistan’s future. The Taliban might attempt to moderate its policies to gain international recognition and economic support, although this remains uncertain given their hardline stance. Alternatively, Afghanistan could experience further instability, with increased resistance from opposition groups and a worsening humanitarian crisis.

The international community’s approach will be crucial in determining Afghanistan’s trajectory. While continued isolation and sanctions could exacerbate instability, cautious engagement might offer a path to addressing immediate humanitarian needs and encouraging some degree of policy moderation.

Conclusion

Three years under Taliban rule have brought significant changes and challenges to Afghanistan. The Taliban's governance has been marked by repression, economic difficulties, and human rights abuses, with limited progress towards stability. The future remains uncertain, with potential for further conflict and suffering if current conditions persist. The international community faces a complex dilemma in engaging with the Taliban while addressing the urgent needs of the Afghan people. The coming years will be critical in determining whether Afghanistan can navigate its crises and move towards a more stable future.