False Survey Claim about Presidential Election in Sri Lanka
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As the Sri Lankan presidential election approaches, a wave of fake surveys is circulated on social media, misleading the public with false predictions and fabricated data. These surveys often claim results favouring specific candidates, creating confusion among voters. It's important for people to rely on official sources and credible media outlets to avoid falling for such disinformation.
Social Media Posts
A viral chart on social media claims that a remote survey purportedly conducted by a British company called Brighouse Data Analytics shows President Ranil Wickremesinghe getting the highest number of votes in the upcoming presidential election. NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake is closely behind him at the second position, while the SJB leader and presidential candidate Sajith Premadasa come in a distant third position, respectively. The survey allegedly analysed the digital behaviours of 90% of eligible voters in each district and was conducted at 3 PM EST on September 10.
Fact Check
1. Company Investigation
We first investigated whether a company named "Brighouse Data Analytics" exists in the UK. A thorough search of the UK Government's Company Directory shows no such company registered under this name. The name "Brighouse" refers to a geographical location in the UK, but no data analytics firm by this name is listed.UK company directory can be reached here. The company mentioned in the viral claim does not exist.
2. Survey Methodology Flaw
The viral post claims that the survey analyzed the "digital behaviours of 90% of eligible voters" across Sri Lanka’s districts. However, this claim is highly flawed when we consider the penetration of the internet and social media in Sri Lanka.
According to the latest DataReportal statistics, only 12.34 million people in Sri Lanka use the internet, constituting 56.3% of the total population. Furthermore, social media users account for around 7.5 million people, roughly 34% of the total population.
Given these figures, as the claim does not disclose details about any particular sample that was considered either, it is impossible to claim that 90% of eligible voters’ digital behaviour was analysed, as the percentage of people connected to the internet or social media is far lower. More details can be reached here Archived.
The survey's methodology is unrealistic and unfeasible based on actual digital user data in Sri Lanka.
3. Investigation of "Brian Murphy"
The survey is attributed to Brian Murphy, but no credible evidence exists that such a person conducted or supervised this study. We contacted a famous individual in the data science community named Brian Murphy, the managing director of Logically AI. The Logically AI confirmed that they don't have any connection with such survey. No verified data scientist named Brian Murphy is associated with this so-called survey.
4. No Media Coverage of Survey
In our investigation, we searched both mainstream and independent media sources for reports on this remote survey. No credible media outlet has reported such a survey, nor has its findings been mentioned. The lack of media coverage confirms that this survey is not legitimate.
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Conclusion
The viral social media post claiming that a survey by Brighouse Data Analytics, supervised by Brian Murphy, shows President Ranil Wickremesinghe leading in the presidential election is false. No such company exists, the survey's data collection method is unrealistic, and there has been no credible media coverage of such a survey.
This post appears to be a fabricated attempt to influence public perception in the lead-up to the election. Always rely on verified sources for accurate information regarding election forecasts and results.