Will Earth Become 4 Degrees Hotter During the Next Decade? Find Out the Facts...

Due to global climate change, there are many changes in the weather patterns around the world, with extreme weather events like heavy rain, snowfall, and high temperatures reported from many areas as well. However, it appears that the temperature changes caused by climate change are exaggerated in many cases. Here is an explanation of the facts related to such a social media post stating that global warming will cause the temperatures to rise by 4 degrees Celsius in the next 10 years.

Social Media Posts

Below is the message that is getting shared through social media circles claiming that in another ten years, the temperature of the Earth will increase by 4 degrees Celsius (4°C) over the current temperature, which in turn will lead to a number of natural calamities.

Facebook | Archived

Many users responded to these posts.

As many know, the Earth's temperature is on an upward curve. But is the estimate of 4°C in 10 years predicted by scientists and experts? Let's find out.

Fact Check

First, we checked whether any recognized international organizations or academics had warned about this kind of situation. But no one had predicted that global warming would increase by 4 degrees Celsius, over today's temperature, within ten years using clear evidence or experimental data.

However, many research groups have warned that unless steps are taken to reduce current greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, global temperatures could rise by as much as 4 degrees Celsius above current levels by the end of this century.

As observed by the research groups and scientists related to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), the 2011-2020 temperature is about 1.1 degrees Celsius higher than the global average temperature of the Earth's surface during the years 1850-1900. The full report can be read here

GHG emissions caused by anthropogenic activities mainly cause this situation. Although this increase in temperature does not appear to be a very high value at first glance, if you look at the last 2000 years, the highest temperature change on the Earth has been reported in the previous few decades. Furthermore, considering the temperature records since 1880, all ten years with the highest average temperatures have been recorded after 2010, again clearly indicating the intensity of global warming.

Below is a graph showing how the temperature has changed since 1880 compared to the average temperature of the Earth's surface during the twentieth century.

As shown in the graph above, the data indicates that the Earth's surface is warming rapidly; with each decade, the rate of warming has more than doubled, with around 0.32° F (0.18° C) increase. More information is here. Archived.

Due to this situation, world leaders gathered and signed the Paris Agreement in 2015, aiming to limit the global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. You can read the related details here. Archived

However, achieving this target is not an easy task. As shown in the social media post, all parties, including the government, private sectors, and other organizations, must be committed to saving the environment and implementing the concepts like Net Zero.

However, some researchers warn that the temperature of the Earth may increase by about 1.5 degrees Celsius in the next ten years. This prediction has been made with the help of artificial intelligence (AI) in a research conducted by a group of researchers at the University of Stanford. You can read the related details here Archived

Using climate models, most scientists predict that if anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue at the current rates, by 2100 AD, global temperatures are more likely to rise by about 4 degrees Celsius than today's temperatures. You can read more about this here. Archived

A 2012 study conducted by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact and Climate Analytics, under the support of the World Bank, also predicted that if greenhouse gas emissions continue without reduction, the global temperature will rise to 4°C by the end of the 21st century. Such temperature rise will have a number of adverse effects, such as rising sea levels and excessive heat waves. You can read more details about it here. Archived

Considering the melting of Himalayan glaciers, it is something that is happening even right now. Due to the gradual increase in global warming, the rate of ice melting may increase further. You can read the related details here. Archived

If you get any questionable information/content related to climate change and environmental issues, send it to our Climate Buddy via WhatsApp.

We have conducted many investigations on false and misleading interpretations regarding climate change and environmental issues, and you can visit Climate Fact Checks to read more on these topics.

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Conclusion

Our research confirms that there are no credible scientific predictions that the global temperature will increase by 4°C in the next 10 years. Even though some studies' forecasts indicate that there is a possibility that the global temperature will increase by 1.5 degrees Celsius in the next 10-15 years, many scientific predictions suggest that if anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current rate, global temperatures could rise by 4 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.